AAngela Merkel Joe Biden will dine together in Washington on July 15th, almost certain to be her last trip to the United States as German Chancellor. The date is a reminder of the unique intimacy of the two allies.75th anniversary of the arrival of the first Bremerhaven Care Packages (cooperatives for American remittances to Europe), parcels of food and supplies that have prevented the hunger of many war-torn Germans.
There is a great warmth show between Prime Minister Lame Duck and the President of the United States. Biden is trying to restore relations with America’s closest ally after Donald Trump treats them with contempt. However, love-in has its limits. In Russia and China, Germany and the United States do not match. “Russia is an ongoing work between the two allies, but there is a big gap with the right strategy for China,” says the think tank Council on Foreign Relations Charles Kupchan.
Despite complaints at home, Merkel continues to stick to her course, even within her party, for many of her transactions with Moscow and most of her relationship with Beijing. This has become a serious problem with Nord Stream 2, a € 9.5 billion ($ 11.2 billion) submarine pipeline that transports natural gas from the Yamal Peninsula in Russia to the German coast and bypasses transportation routes in Ukraine and Poland. I will. The project is scheduled to be completed in August.
“Nord Stream 2 is a heavy millstone around our neck, damaging our trust,” says former German ambassador Wolfgang Isinger. The pipeline has significantly nullified the credits earned by Mrs. Merkel’s forced recruitment of other Europeans to impose sanctions on Russia after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Warnig, a former East German intelligence officer who is the CEO. But Congress is likely to demand new sanctions next month, so he needs something in return.
Chancellor Merkel is expected to reach a compromise so that Mr Biden can appease the House of Representatives. Germany can promise to turn off gas passing through Nord Stream 2 if Russians stop transporting gas through Ukraine. As a result, there is concern about loss of shipping charges. It has the potential to strengthen Ukraine by supporting the development of new sources of income and energy infrastructure. Finally, the United States-cultivated three efforts to modernize the infrastructure, such as ports and pipes, between the 12 eastern member states of the European Union, needed to switch to liquefied natural gas from the United States or other suppliers. May help pay for Marine Initiatives.
Like her predecessor, Mrs Merkel sought to balance her loyalty to Germany’s allies with her enemies and attempts to engage financially.Still, of Willy Brandt Ostpolitik (Ostpolitik) was one of the most successful postwar doctrines, Wandel Darch Handel (Changes due to trade), mantras for the past 20 years Ostpolitik, Hans Kundnani of Chatham House, a British think tank, claims. Ostpolitik At least there was unity as a strategic goal. The idea of political change through trade is often just an excuse for a closer commercial relationship with a dictatorship.That’s one of the other reasons EU Leaders recently smashed Merkel’s first push EU Summit talks with Vladimir Putin since the Russian president annexed Crimea.
Until a few years ago, Germany’s Chinese policy was mainly Wandel Darch Handel, Especially promoted by major automakers, Germany’s most important industry. Over the last decade, China has become Germany’s largest trading partner, with commodity exchanges growing to $ 243 billion last year. Volkswagen, Europe’s largest automaker, currently sells more than 40% of its passenger cars in China (see graph).
However, Germany’s enthusiasm for doing business with China has diminished. Early 2019 BDIGermany’s leading trade association, calling China a “systematic competitor”, outlined concerns about high barriers to entry, state subsidies to local businesses, and other distortions in the Chinese market. I published a paper. Siegfried Rasworm, BDIThe boss recently said Germany needs “honest discussions on how to deal with dictatorial trading partners.” Human rights are not internal affairs, Russwurm argued, explaining China’s “unacceptable” treatment of the Uighurs, a minority of Islam.
The policy has also changed. The new law requires German companies with more than 3,000 employees to prove that there are no human rights abuses in their supply chains by 2023 (from 2024 it will apply to more than 1,000 companies). Penalties for violations can be 2% of a company’s annual revenue.
Still, Merkel sticks to her policy of treating China with children’s gloves. She was in great agreement to ban Chinese company Huawei from bidding on contracts to build Germany’s 5G telecommunications network, as the United States wanted.Last few days of the German replacement president EU Last December, she promoted a treaty aimed at granting European companies better access to the Chinese market. This frustrated the next Biden administration, EU Parliament.And in June, Mrs. Merkel made friends G7 Leaders water the final communiqué of the summit so as not to confuse China.
Will Merkel’s successor plan another course? Constanze Sterzenmüller of the Brookings Institution, a think tank, has the impression that two of the three fighting for her successor after the September elections are unaware of the extent of the challenges posed by the invasion of Russia and China. Is stated to give. Christian Democrat, Armin Laschet (CDU) Candidate, and Social Democratic Party Olaf Scholz, has a subtle debate about the United States wanting a “new Cold War” and trying to force Europeans to “separate” from China.
In contrast, Greens candidate Annalena Baerbock is trying to confront Russia and China. But her chances are receding, with the latest polls giving Greens less than 20% of the votes cast. CDU And its allies hover about 30%. As a potential junior partner, she will have some emphasis on Chinese and Russian policies, but it’s hard to say how much. Her priority will be climate change. Therefore, Mr. Biden will listen to Merkel even on the way out. Her successor may follow her faithfully. ■■
This article was published in the printed European section under the heading “Auf Wiedersehen, Amerika!”.