Andrew Bowie asks ‘why did Sturgeon mislead Scottish folks’
The Scottish First Minister has mentioned a brand new referendum is “a matter of when, not if” and vowed to carry a vote on independence as quickly because the pandemic is over. Ms Sturgeon has argued the SNP and Inexperienced Celebration successful a majority of seats at Holyrood has given her a mandate.
However pollster James Johnson, who performed a key position in conducting surveys and focus teams for No10 beneath Theresa Might’s management, mentioned the SNP was vulnerable to alienating supporters by holding a vote.
Speaking to Categorical.co.uk about analysis he carried out within the run-up to the election, he mentioned some SNP voters gave their assist to Ms Sturgeon as a result of they didn’t consider she would observe by and maintain a referendum.
“A few of these SNP voters who voted SNP for these extra home causes have been saying they might really feel actually fairly shocked, disillusioned, cheated if Nicola Sturgeon went and held a referendum,” he mentioned.
“Whenever you have a look at the polls, individuals are against having a referendum anytime quickly, together with not an insignificant portion of people that voted for the SNP.
SNP voters would really feel ‘cheated’ if a brand new referendum was held in accordance with the pollster
“A great chunk of people that voted for the SNP did so as a result of they have been impressed by Nicola Sturgeon’s dealing with of the pandemic, not as a result of they wished an independence referendum.
“If you happen to have a look at the run-up to the vote, Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP have been making an attempt to clarify to voters that independence wasn’t their high precedence and that they have been going to concentrate on home points as a substitute.”
He mentioned Ms Sturgeon was strolling a tightrope over independence and will see her plans backfire.
He mentioned: “If Sturgeon will get the messaging unsuitable and so they flip towards the SNP and say ‘why the hell aren’t you specializing in faculties, the NHS, and so forth’, then that is clearly going to be dangerous for Sturgeon.
“You may see SNP assist and independence assist eroding.
“It is a actually, actually positive stability.”
Nicola Sturgeon obtained votes from Scots who need the main target to be on the pandemic
The SNP are hoping to carry a brand new referendum throughout the present sitting of parliament
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has spent months overhauling his Union Unit which goals to spice up the energy of the UK to assist see off the specter of Scottish independence.
In latest weeks his tone on the topic has softened, not ruling out a referendum may very well be held sooner or later sooner or later, however saying now just isn’t the time for a brand new vote.
He mentioned the morning after the Holyrood election: “I don’t suppose that is something just like the time to have extra constitutional wrangling, to be speaking about ripping our nation aside, when truly folks need to heal our financial system and bounce ahead collectively.”
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Boris Johnson has rejected any referendum within the close to future
James Johnson mentioned the technique of pushing again on the timetable may forestall the SNP securing independence.
“If that language stays the identical, that could be simply sufficient to have the ability to reject an independence referendum with these voters being pushed towards Nicola Sturgeon’s camp,” he mentioned earlier than warning: “It is really easy to place a foot unsuitable right here.
“A number of months in the past contemplating the place that coverage was, it might have been very easy to think about Boris Johnson popping out on the steps of No10, saying ‘by no means ever ever, as soon as in a era, not going to entertain it’, and that actually backfiring.
“That hasn’t occurred.
Scotland election outcomes 2021
“There may be extra of a plan and extra of a way of what messages work and which of them do not.”
On the Holyrood elections, the SNP gained 64 seats yet another than in 2016.
Added to the eight seats the Inexperienced Celebration gained, pro-independence events gained 72 of the 129 within the Parliament.
Nevertheless, unionists have pointed to the actual fact pro-UK events gained a majority proportion share (50.4 p.c) of the vote in constituency seats.