POLITICO Playbook: sound sensible about politics on Thanksgiving
With assist from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
It’s one of many slowest weeks in politics as our elected leaders slip into the Thanksgiving break, after they have an opportunity to evaluate the fallout from the shocking midterm outcomes and ponder the best way ahead.
President JOE BIDEN will head to Nantucket for Thanksgiving, an annual Biden household custom stretching again to the ’70s, although the Bidens skipped a 2020 go to to the island through the pandemic. The president has mentioned lately he would use the month between Thanksgiving and Christmas to evaluate his 2024 reelection plans, which, he mentioned, is “ultimately a family decision.”
Not like Biden, fellow octogenarians NANCY PELOSI and STENY HOYER, who already introduced their retirements from management, can benefit from the vacation with no large resolution hanging over them. When the Home Dem leaders mentioned they have been stepping down, we questioned if it could have any impression on Biden’s resolution. Possibly it takes the stress off him to construct that bridge to the following technology of Democrats he talked about a lot in 2020? Or possibly it’s a reminder of how previous he’s?
Senate Minority Chief MITCH McCONNELL, one other octogenarian, says he’s not going anyplace however is going through the same generational comparability to Pelosi and Hoyer. A Washington Occasions headline says McConnell “defies exodus of Capitol’s oldest leaders while discontent simmers in GOP base.”
In the meantime, Home Minority Chief KEVIN McCARTHY, who’s coping with his personal base of simmering discontent within the Home, must spend Thanksgiving plotting a path to 218 votes to change into speaker. His newest bid to woo the correct is to remind conservatives he needs to kick Democratic california Reps. ADAM SCHIFF and ERIC SWALWELL off the Intelligence Committee.
As you put together your personal vacation plans, you’ll in all probability wish to be armed on the dinner desk with one thing sensible to say concerning the that means of the midterms.
It’s admittedly a complicated topic. There was no pink wave, however Republicans flipped the Home. The anti-Trump coalition that returned Pelosi to the speakership in 2018 and elected Biden in 2020 appeared to carry collectively for the Democrats, and but a few of the largest beneficial properties for Republicans got here amongst college-educated suburban girls and Black and Latino voters. We have now been listening to for years that politics is turning into extra nationalized, partly due to the decline of native news and the rise of partisan nationwide cable networks, however a lot of midterm races turned on native points or candidates. Ticket-splitting was mentioned to be useless, however it was some of the conspicuous options of the voting on Nov. 8.
However if you wish to filter out plenty of the noise within the outcomes and focus in on the sign, this morning’s Ron Brownstein piece at CNN is an efficient one to clip and save for Thursday.
He identifies a couple of key tendencies current within the 2022 outcomes that inform us loads about 2024:
- The pink states are getting redder. (See the outcomes for Gov. RON DeSANTIS in Florida or Gov. MIKE DeWINE in Ohio.)
- The blue states are getting bluer. (See Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM’s reelection in california, or what occurred in Colorado, Maryland, Massachusetts and Washington state.)
- The subsequent presidential election will probably be determined by fewer voters in fewer states.
The 2 presidential nominees might begin out in 2024 with as many as 46 states and D.C. sorted between the 2 events. Brownstein argues that given current tendencies, Democrats might begin with a secure 260 electoral votes and Republicans with a secure 235 electoral votes. Beneath this state of affairs, longtime battleground states have change into reliably pink or blue. With Michigan and Pennsylvania seemingly again in Democratic fingers, Florida and Ohio dominated by the GOP, sometimes-blue North Carolina out of attain for Democrats, and perennial GOP goal New Hampshire out of attain for Republicans, the listing of true toss-ups might be down to only 4 states price 43 electoral votes: Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin.
The electoral school map is so intently divided which you can slim down the decisive swing votes to some pockets unfold throughout these 4 states: “a miniscule number of people living in the tiny patches of contested political ground — white-collar suburbs of Atlanta and Phoenix, working-class Latino neighborhoods in and around Las Vegas and the mid-sized communities of the so-called BOW counties in Wisconsin.”
After all, if that is all too boring, simply ask your uncle what he thinks about ELON MUSK reinstating @realDonaldTrump. That ought to get the dialog going.
Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for studying Playbook. Drop us a line with your personal Thanksgiving ideas: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
CAN I GET ON THE LIST? —“The House Ethics Committee is investigating Carolyn Maloney for allegedly asking for an invitation to the Met Gala,” by Nicholas Wu: “Investigators alleged [Democratic N.Y. Rep. CAROLYN] MALONEY, who has been a longtime attendee of the Met Gala, had sought out an invitation for herself after being cut from the invite list in 2016. … Lawmakers are generally allowed to attend charitable gatherings for free like the Met Gala if the invitation is unsolicited. But Maloney’s efforts to get an invite could run afoul of the law.”
TEPID ON TRUMP — “Rick Perry noncommittal about Trump run: ‘Show me what you got,’” by the Texas Tribune’s Trent Brown
MUSK READ — “Elon Musk says Twitter is done with layoffs and ready to hire again,” by The Verge’s Alex Heath: “While fielding employee questions for about a half-hour from Twitter’s San Francisco headquarters, [ELON] MUSK said there are ‘no plans’ to move Twitter’s headquarters to Texas like he did with Tesla, but that it could make sense to be ‘dual-headquartered’ in california and Texas. ‘If we want to move the headquarters to Texas I think it would play into the idea that Twitter has gone from being left-wing to right-wing, which is not the case,’ he told employees. ‘This is not a right-wing takeover of Twitter. It is a moderate-wing takeover of Twitter.’”
— Associated learn: “The Era of ‘Stay and Fight’ Twitter Is Here,” by The Atlantic’s Kaitlyn Tiffany: “Now that Elon Musk is welcoming DONALD TRUMP Trump back to Twitter, some liberals feel they can’t leave the platform behind.”
WOWZA — “AP Fires Reporter Behind Retracted ‘Russian Missiles’ Story,” by The Each day Beast’s Corbin Bolies and Lachlan Cartwright: “The Associated Press scared much of the world last Tuesday when it alerted readers that ‘a senior U.S. intelligence official’ said ‘Russian missiles crossed into NATO member Poland, killing two people.’ … On Monday, the AP fired JAMES LaPORTA, the investigative reporter responsible for that story, Confider has learned. The piece, which was originally co-bylined with JOHN LEICESTER (who is still working at the AP), attributed the information to a single ‘senior U.S. intelligence official,’ despite the AP’s rule that it ‘routinely seeks and requires more than one source when sourcing is anonymous.’”
SHOW ME A HERO — “Army Veteran Went Into ‘Combat Mode’ to Disarm the Club Q Gunman,” by NYT’s Dave Philipps in Colorado Springs: “RICHARD M. FIERRO was at a table in Club Q with his wife, daughter and friends on Saturday, watching a drag show, when the sudden flash of gunfire ripped across the nightclub and instincts forged during four combat deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan instantly kicked in. Fight back, he told himself, protect your people. …
“‘I don’t know exactly what I did, I just went into combat mode,’ Mr. Fierro said, shaking his head as he stood in his driveway, an American flag hanging limp in the freezing air. ‘I just know I have to kill this guy before he kills us.’ …
“It was Mr. Fierro’s first time at a drag show, and he was digging it. He had spent 15 years in the Army, and now relished his role as a civilian and a father, watching one of his daughter’s old high-school friends perform. ‘These kids want to live that way, want to have a good time, have at it,’ he said as he described the night. ‘I’m happy about it because that is what I fought for, so they can do whatever they hell they want.’”
PHOTO OF THE DAY
IMPEACHER HANGS ON — “Rep. David Valadao wins reelection in endangered Central Valley congressional seat,” by L.A. Occasions’ Melanie Mason: “Central Valley Republican Rep. DAVID VALADAO, whose vote to impeach President Trump nearly sank his campaign in the primary, will return to Congress next year, after defeating Democratic state Assemblyman RUDY SALAS. The Associated Press called the race Monday, though official results will take longer. After control of the House tipped to Republicans last week, Valadao’s win and california’s two remaining congressional races are determining the size of the GOP’s majority.”
— Steve Shepard (@POLITICO_Steve): “Of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach then-President Trump in Jan. 2021, 2 are coming back to Congress: Reps. David Valadao (#CA22) and DAN NEWHOUSE (#WA04).”
RUNOFF REPORT — “Saturday voting upheld in Georgia U.S. Senate runoff,” by the Atlanta Journal-Structure’s Mark Niesse: “The Georgia Court of Appeals has denied an attempt to stop early voting on Saturday for the U.S. Senate runoff, a ruling that allows counties to open polling places after the Thanksgiving holiday. The court’s one-sentence decision Monday evening was a victory for Democratic U.S. Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK’s campaign, which along with the Democratic Party of Georgia sued to ensure the weekend voting opportunity.”
ANGST IN ARIZONA — “A second Republican-controlled Arizona county on Monday delayed certifying the results of this month’s election as a protest against voting issues in Maricopa County that some GOP officials have blamed for their losses in top races including the contest for governor,” AP’s Bob Christie reviews.
— “As ballot counting wraps up, Maricopa County officials deal with state requests, outside threats,” by Arizona Republic’s Sasha Hupka
BANKS’ SHOT— Rep. JIM BANKS (R-Ind.) has his eye on a Senate seat if fellow Republican Sen. MIKE BRAUN runs for governor in 2024, Indy Politics’ Abdul Hakeem-Shabazz reviews. “Banks lost the Republican caucus race to be the new Majority Whip, so sources tell us he’s ‘all in for the U.S. Senate’. Banks has been making calls and building up support. Fifth District Congresswoman VICTORIA SPARTZ is also looking at running for the Senate.”
THE WHITE HOUSE
BIDEN BATTENS DOWN — “The White House girds for combat,” by Christopher Cadelago: “With Republicans narrowly taking control of the House, and Donald Trump announcing another presidential bid, President Joe Biden and aides are moving with speed to counter an anticipated barrage of right-wing attacks. For months, White House officials have been laying plans to prepare for congressional probes and possible impeachment fights. …
“Presidential aides know they’re coming in for uncomfortable, even deeply personal, clashes over everything from the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan to migrants crossing the southern border to the Biden family itself. … But officials and others in on the planning contend the new, tougher terrain also will create opportunities to draw contrasts with political opponents whose priorities they view as outside the mainstream and, frankly, extreme.”
NIGHT OF THE HUNTER — “Copy of what’s believed to be Hunter Biden’s laptop data turned over by repair shop to FBI showed no tampering, analysis says,” by CBS’ Catherine Herridge and Graham Kates
MR. SMITH NOT YET IN WASHINGTON — “From Europe, Trump special counsel takes over Mar-a-Lago, Jan. 6 probes,” by WaPo’s Devlin Barrett and Perry Stein: “Newly appointed special counsel JACK SMITH continues to work remotely from Europe as he assembles a team, finds office space, and takes over two high-stakes investigations into former president Donald Trump — complex cases that officials insist will not be delayed by Smith’s appointment, even as they also said they do not know when he will return to the United States. Smith, a war crimes prosecutor at the International Criminal Court at The Hague, injured his leg in a recent bicycle accident and is recovering from surgery.”
TAX FRAUD TRIAL COULD WRAP SOON — “Prosecution Rests as Trump Company Trial Moves Faster Than Expected,” by NYT’s Jonah Bromwich, Lola Fadulu and William Rashbaum: “Manhattan prosecutors rested their case in the tax fraud trial of Donald J. Trump’s family business on Monday without calling a witness they had previously planned to question, an indication of confidence after the company’s longtime chief financial officer testified last week.”
The timeline: “The prosecutors’ conclusion of their case suggested that the trial, which some experts had expected to last well into December, could conclude as soon as next week, with the defense hoping that [longtime accountant DONALD] BENDER’s testimony might help tip the scales in their favor as the jury prepares to deliberate. After Tuesday, proceedings will pause for the Thanksgiving holiday, resuming Nov. 28.”
JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH
SEDITION STEPBACK — “Was it sedition? Jan. 6 trial a major test for Justice Dept.,” by AP’s Lindsay Whitehurst and Alanna Durkin Richer: “Jurors will begin weighing [Oath Keepers founder STEWART RHODES’] words and actions on Tuesday, after nearly two months of testimony and argument in the criminal trial of Rhodes and four co-defendants. Final defense arguments wrapped up late Monday. … The outcome could also shape the future of the Justice Department’s massive and costly prosecution of the insurrection that some conservatives have sought to portray as politically motivated.”
WAR IN UKRAINE
THE FUNDING FIGHT — “Congressional Republican leaders are on track to steamroll the growing number of conservative lawmakers who want to stop funding Ukraine’s war effort, a move that’s sure to intensify the GOP divide over U.S. support for Kyiv,” Andrew Desiderio reviews from Halifax, Nova Scotia. “Interviews with lawmakers who traveled here for the Halifax International Security Forum, an annual pro-democracy conference, revealed that Congress is likely to allocate well more than the $38 billion the Biden administration requested for Ukraine’s military and economic needs as part of a year-end governing funding bill. And that extra infusion is set to advance with the help of senior Republicans, even as influential conservative groups urge a pause.
“If Congress approves the White House’s request or super-sizes it, the U.S. commitment to Kyiv since Russia’s invasion began in February could top $100 billion by the end of the year — a massive sum that would throw a sharp elbow at Donald Trump-aligned Republicans who want to reevaluate U.S. policy toward Ukraine. But as questions swirl over the staying power of the Western coalition, lawmakers’ message here in Halifax was clear: Now is not the time to scale back the flow of weapons, equipment and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.”
THE VIEW FROM KYIV — “Ukraine to civilians: Leave liberated areas before winter,” by AP’s John Leicester
ON THE GROUND — “On the River at Night, Ambushing Russians,” by NYT’s Carlotta Gall: “Ukrainian units plying the Dnipro River venture behind enemy lines under the cover of darkness, carrying out reconnaissance and sabotage.”
AMERICA AND THE WORLD
BEND IT LIKE BLINKEN — “Antony Blinken on the Diplomatic Niceties of the Beautiful Game,” by The Atlantic’s Franklin Foer
DID DeSANTIS DOOM CHAPEK? — “Bob Chapek’s tenure marked by political missteps inside and outside of Disney,” by CNN’s Ramishah Maruf: “[Ousted Disney CEO BOB] CHAPEK’s downfall arose, at least in part, out of his bungled response to Florida’s controversial Parental Rights in Education bill, dubbed the ‘Don’t Say Gay’ bill by critics. His decisions had far-reaching effects on both Disney’s reputation and on the company’s “favored nation” standing within the state.
“Early this year, Disney faced mounting criticism for not taking a public stance on the bill. The law bans educators from discussions about sexual orientation and gender identity in some classrooms. Chapek ended up igniting a political firestorm — despite his initial efforts to keep the company out of politics. (Iger had publicly condemned the bill on Twitter).”
— Associated learn: “Iger’s Sudden Return to Disney Shocks a Discontented Kingdom,” by NYT’s Brooks Barnes, Benjamin Mullin and James Stewart
POST POLITICS — “Fred Ryan’s Re-Election,” by Puck’s Dylan Byers: “Today, questions about [WaPo publisher FRED] RYAN’s leadership have become a widespread talking point at the Post. As I reported earlier this week, a familiar complaint inside the building is that, indeed, Ryan didn’t move aggressively enough to capitalize on the paper’s success during the Trump era, and that he doesn’t have what it takes to build out a robust subscription business. And, as I reported, these frustrations go all the way to the top of the newsroom.
“In private conversations with colleagues and friends, [executive editor SALLY] BUZBEE has criticized Ryan’s lack of strategy around editorial and digital investments, and the company’s inability to grow the subscriber business through M&A, sources who have spoken to her told me. She is said to be envious of the Times’ aggressive acquisition strategy, including its purchase of Wordle. And, most notably, she has told colleagues that she doesn’t know how long Ryan will, or should, remain as C.E.O., though she categorically denied this on the record in a brief chat with me earlier this week.”
Marjorie Taylor Greene is back on Twitter.
Peter Thiel-financed anti-woke bank GloriFi is shutting down.
Dupont Circlewas full of World Cup revelers on Monday. (We think about the scene was fairly totally different when Wales notched a late equalizer.)
SPOTTED at Joe’s throughout lunchtime on Monday: Guster lead singer (and occasional contributor to The Atlantic) Ryan Miller celebrating his fiftieth birthday with Robert Costa, Jeffrey Goldberg, Alex Edelman and Robyn Kanner.
STAFFING UP — Jenna Valle-Riestra is now a spokesperson at Treasury. She beforehand was press secretary for the Senate Judiciary Committee below Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Unwell.). … Jeremy Bernton is now White Home liaison at State. He most lately was govt secretary at USAID.
ENGAGED — Tiffany Haas, labor coverage adviser for Senate HELP Committee Dems, and Nick Silverman, knowledge and polling director for the NRSC, acquired engaged this weekend on the reflecting pool. Pic
WEDDING — Parker Van de Water, authorities coordinator on the Kennedy Heart and a Home Appropriations alum, and Patrick Maillet, a lawyer with Authorized Companies in D.C. and a Betty McCollom alum, lately acquired married at Airlie in Warrenton, Va. The 2 met whereas engaged on the Hill in 2018. Pic … One other pic
WELCOME TO THE WORLD —Alicia Daugherty, a VP at digital therapeutics firm Woebot health, and Dan Diamond, a health reporter at WaPo, on Nov. 15 welcomed Sprint David Diamond, who got here in at 6 lbs. Pic … One other pic
— Nick Calderon, senior supervisor at Narrative Methods, and Jackie Calderon, operations supervisor at Lawler, Metzger, Keeney & Logan LLC, welcomed their first baby, Catherine Joan “CJ” Calderon, on Nov. 9.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield (7-0) … U.S. Ambassador to the Netherlands Shefali Razdan Duggal … Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Ga.) … NBC’s Scott Wong … State’s Ned Value (4-0) … POLITICO’s Timothy Francois … CNN’s Cassie Spodak … Rob Atkinson of the Info Expertise and Innovation Basis … CBS’s Matthew Mosk … Jacob Wooden … Brunswick Group’s Robert Christie … Annie Shoup … Meghan Dugan … James Williams of Arnold Ventures … Lauren Reamy of Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) workplace … Meena Ganesan … TheSkimm’s Jessica Turtletaub … Tim R. Cohen … former Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D-N.Y.) … Maggie Madsen … Bettina Inclán-Agen … Tim Cameron of FlexPoint Media … THE CITY NY’s Harry Siegel … Andy Stern … Donny Deutsch … Alessandra Grabowski
Ship Playbookers tricks to [email protected] or textual content us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t occur with out our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.